Cold Rolled Coil Prices Trend and Forecast

North America

Prices for US Cold Rolled Coil dwindled in the fourth quarter of 2022 due to a lack of price direction and major logistics concerns. In the fourth quarter, the steel market awaited the outcome of contract negotiations between integrated steelmaker US Steel and USW, which expired on September 1st, 2022. However, the US government intervened to prevent a national freight rail strike by forcing union members to accept a deal and raise employee wages. Additionally, the Mississippi River's water level dropped in the final quarter, resulting in costly dredging, traffic congestion, and shipping delays. Furthermore, shippers were forced to limit the cargo volume their barges could transport to navigate the low water levels safely. High-priced raw materials had higher conversion costs in mid-Q4, with expensive pig iron inventories and higher-priced scrap inventories being the primary drivers of CRC mixed sentiment. As the holiday season approached in December, market participants reported little trading activity in the spot market. The market slowed as mills continued to raise prices in preparation for the Christmas holiday. According to market participants, CRC prices have risen due to trade concerns that winter storms will disrupt logistics and steel production in the United States. As a result, the Ex Midwest (USA) price of CR Coil (1 mm) was set at USD 1033/MT.

Asia Pacific

In the fourth quarter of 2022, the Cold Rolled Coil prices showcased an upswing price trend in the Chinese market amidst sporadic COVID lockdowns, logistics issues, and a shrinking demand outlook. In October, the prices of Cold-Rolled Coil plunged in the backdrop of shrinking demand and limited purchasing activity. Large Chinese mills resisted lowering their offers in export markets, while spot traders began to sell short. By November, nickel and steel had begun rallying again. However, suppliers remained rampant with an inventory. Furthermore, Chinese scrap prices rose in mid-Q4, but the price gains were offset. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike continued to hurt the commodity market, so the market was pessimistic. Suppliers reduced market shipments as winter restocking expectations fell. In December, Cold Rolled Coil prices appeared bullish again, making the 2023 Q1 price outlook appear more bullish. Thus, the Ex Tianjin (China) CR coil (SPCC-1 mm) price was fixed at USD 666/MT.

Europe

Prices for Coil Rolled Coil in the European market fell in the fourth quarter of 2022 due to low demand, increased supply chain stocks, and cautious end-user purchasing activity. The European cold-rolled coil market remained quiet in Q4, according to suppliers, with some suppliers' discounts failing to stimulate trading activity and fill gaps in their order books. Despite this, regional trade remained subdued in Q4. Distributors reported large stocks of downstream coil purchased at higher prices in the first quarter to avoid restocking in the fourth quarter. To balance supply and demand, several European producers either stopped producing steel or reduced output in the third and fourth quarters of 2022. Mills believed that Cold-Rolled Coil prices had reached a bottom, with no room for further price drops due to higher production costs. Aside from low demand and overstocking, competitive overseas offers had pushed CRC prices in southern Europe lower. While some buyers need to restock, market participants stated that they would prefer to wait for the price to fall to its lowest point before replenishing stocks for the first quarter of 2023. Thus, the CR Coil (1 mm) prices for Ex Ruhr are fixed at USD 854/MT.

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